| The critical pages: index » Russia vs. Ukraine war: Overview of events after 1 year |
I started to write down this page on 2023-3-8 and 2023-3-9, then finished 2023-4-21 and 2023-4-22.
On 2023-4-24 I made a video, 424 days (1 year 2 months) after the "3 day invasion", and 266 days (almost 9 months) after my predictions.
The public start of this occurred in 2007 but possibly even earlier, i.e. when putin stated his views. The case where it became really clear was putin's 2007 speech about the fall of the soviet union being a catastrophe. It was a sign of things to come, obvious if you know what kind of person he is, i.e. a psychopath, not just someone who doesn't care about other people, but the most dangerous of such people, what I call an 'idealistic psychopath', just like Hitler.
When you look at Russia wanting to join NATO early 2000s his attitude was also already clear, which is that he wanted to be an exception rather than an also-ran: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule.
This is also what shows that russian economist Sergei Guriev doesn't understand putin at all (see the video DW News: Will depleted funds put an end to Russia's war in Ukraine? | Conflict Zone: Leading Russian economist Sergei Guriev) as he gave factors for why putin invaded Ukraine which were all about money: an empire expansion for the internal audience after the 2008 global financial 'crisis', and to protect his palaces. He is an economist and so he thinks in terms of money. This is the case for most people: They see the world in terms of how they think. They are not truth seekers.
I placed the following comment there:
This guy doean't understand putler: in 2007 putler made a speech lamenting the decline of the soviet union, perhaps he did it even earlier on other occasions. Then the 2008 invasion of parts of Georgia, in 2014 Crimea and the Donbass. He didn't become anti-western and he didn't create the idea of empire building in 2014 nor even in 2009 related to economic issues, that was already there! (see also the half-assed attempt to get into NATO which he didn't do as needed because he feels superior and wants everything done 'his way'). If you watch a TV series such as 'Russia: A journey with David Dimbleby' (BBC, 2008) you see the same sentiments in various people young and older, of misdsng having the status as they had at the time of the soviet union of being a world power. Putler is and always was what I call an idealistic psychopath: He just did what he thought he could get away with, which obviously expanded over time, and delusions of grandeur thus get attempted later on, not at the start. No empire building to protect his palaces, that is just nonsense.
And as a summary I added:
Guriev doesn't understand putin at all. He only thinks in terms of money, because he is an economist who sees the world as he thinks about the world, as he is not a truth seeker. The time table of events show that his assertions about why putin invaded Crimea and Ukraine, are wrong. it is not about protecting palaces, and only to some degree about an image to the internal audience.
For more detail see this page:2023-4-24: Russian economist Sergei Guriev doesn't understand putin, he analyses the world with economic thinking.
In 2008 there was a conflict with Georgia, with Russia gradually taking pieces of Georgia. As if Russia is not big enough... Reasons: They were not going along with playing with Russia.
In 2014 taking Crimea because of his idealistic goals but also the timing was because of 2 factors: 1) Discovery of gas fields by Ukraine, 2) The winter Olympics were a distraction to the west, which were ongoing from 7 to 23 February 2014 in Sochi, Russia. At the same time Russian soldiers were getting into Crimea, and making people vote to be with Russia in March. Those who wanted to vote to be with Ukraine were pressured, not just verbally but physically assaulted.
Let me look back at my predictions:
Prediction part 1: 3 months from the end of July 2022, which is about 1 November 2022: I predicted:
3 months: gradual increase in all prices, extreme increase in goods that cannot be obtained new any more (samsung phones, iphones, cars from many brands (already happened with cars still available in dealerships, but this will become worse), etc.). Politically not much change.
By now it is obvious to everyone who is not blind that Russia has been demilitarised to a large degree. In the war Russia loses more and more men and material and will have to quit or go to full scale war, the latter with inferior weapons and with even higher losses than before because of the far superior material available to Ukraine and because Russia cannot just make more high quality material because of sanctions.
They won't have much military material left and as they can't get access to western products used in their equipment, they will not be able to build high quality replacements but revert back to new or refurbished old tanks and other vehicles using worse optics, slower microprocessors, and possibly bad displays (unless there is some factory of good displays in Russia).
In military position the best that Russia will do is a stalemate but it is more likely that Russia is forced to withdraw more and more due to higher quality weapons available to Ukraine.
2nd order sanctions may be imposed by EU/USA to countries selling products to Russia but that is likely for much later. As the EU still buys oil/gas from Russia logically they can't sanction other countries for doing the same, yet.
All of this is correct. There was not a complete consensus yet that Russia has to a large degree been demilitarised yet, but that was the case as you could see not long later with increasing use of old tanks. That Russia would at that point need to use more men with higher losses because of inferior equipment was also correct.
What happened then was Ukraine got HIMARS rocket system which really helped them, but Russia decided to mobilise more men which eventually, ca. Feb. 2023 resulted in the almost stalemate situation around Bakhmut, but this cannot last if the west keeps up supplies of weapons to Ukraine as Russia cannot counter that, they are going back in time with their weapons.
At the end of December 2022, everyone on all news channels on TV and youtube from all languages that I saw [ besides obviously lying troll channels on youtube such as 'Redacted', 'Hindustan times', possibly WION too but I didn't pay attention to those idiots any more, and various nutters such as iEarlGray, 'Douglas McGregor' etc. ], stated what I already realised April-May 2022 (which was before I sold my house), which is: Russia could not win (and therefore I continued with my plan and preparations to travel to Ukraine).
Despite the obvious fact that Russia could not win, there were and are obvious idiots such as US general Milley who said that the likely outcome would be negotiations. Has this idiot never heard of any psychological analysis? has this idiot not ever realised the possibility of a frozen conflict? Does this idiot not realise that any negotiations with a psychopath are worthless because they will never honour those agreements? (just as Russia didn't honour the Budapest agreement in response to Ukraine giving up their nukes to Russia) By the way, it was interesting to see the different response I got to criticising such negative, incompetent and defeatist attitude on a US channel and on a UK channel such as Times radio. On a US channel such as CNN there was little criticism of this guy Milley, on Times radio there was heavy criticism of similar talk by an English retired general. This difference comes from various factors such as the pro-Russian and/or "don't get involved" attitude on 'Fox news'.
Prediction part 2: 3 months from the end of July 2022, which is about 1 February 2023: I predicted:
6 months: Dissension in bigger cities in Russia because of inavailability of new electronics and much more types of devices (anything that used to be imported), further price increases as have been going on with non-imported things such as food too. Pressure on, and criticism about the government will then get stronger.
If Russia doesn't back down and pay for all damage to Ukraine and more, they will get more and more isolated politically and economically. Nobody is going to buy Russian military equipment even disregarding the sanctions, as it's been completely wiped out everywhere and Russia is continuing only through accepting enormous losses of its people and material. Who wants to buy material that routinely gets destroyed by a far smaller army? This already happened before UA got military aid with better weapons from 'the west'...
As one soldier said in a video not long after the start of the war, asking if he could swear: "We are lucky the enemy is so f*cking stupid!". That goes not just for the lowly soldiers but the whole military and the people in the Kremlin too.
Militarily Russia will by now be almost entirely defeated, i.e. it won't have any significant offensive abilities left. What they try, if anything, will be at a huge cost to them in losses in people, material, economy.
There were big demonstrations and after the mobilisation a lot of young Russians left Russia. But real dissent in the cities among everyone affected by the situation was and still is limited. There are a few factors related to that: 1. You are going to end up in jail if you complain about the war, 2. there is continuous propaganda on Russian TV as if Russia is the victim. This likely means even people who are not happy are not saying much about it. So this is somewhat undecided but likely I am right, it's just not expressed enough because of the oppressive regime.
As to my prediction about nobody buying Russian military equipment: I watched a bit of a video about that recently (mid April 2023) where the same was stated, and it's just common sense: If the Russians can't capture a city like Bakhmut with their equipment in 6 months or more, lose thousands of tanks, can't create air superiority, why buy their stuff? This was already clear to me ca. April 2022, why not to others?
That Russia is militarily almost defeated is also correct. Russia can still inflict a lot of damage, but they are essentially dead men walking, just like putin. The only issue is, will the west step up with weapons to finish the job quickly, such as long range HIMARS rockets, rather than a long war of attrition letting Russia mobilise even more men.
In August 2022 I was in a hostel in Zhytomyr and talking to various soldiers, One of them was rather pessimistic, I almost felt he was a Russian agent trying to creating a defeatist atmosphere in the army! I talked to several people about what they felt would happen. One of them a sergeant, and we talked about recruiting practices in Ukraine, and I mentioned my predictions, and that I was already sure that Russia would lose. He then asked "What about Crimea", and I said "Next summer". Of course that time frame can change from various factors, such as mobilisation in Russia which will delay things, but I think my view is still correct, this is quite possible though it may be delayed. I will quote from an email I sent a reader of my bicycle site about what I think will happen, which is more detailed than the predictions I made end of July 2022.
[ Oh, btw, I mentioned wanting to start a business in Ukraine. He said "You want to start a business here, now?!", yes, why not. I was after all sure Russia would lose, so why wait? ]
Right, now to my predictions of possible scenarios for the coming months, this is from an email from 2023-2-8 to a reader of my bicycle site:
I don't worry about the war, Russia will lose. I talked to soldiers in the hostel where I stayed in Zhytomyr in August, and I mentioned that I was sure Russia would lose (given support by the west) because of their abysmal performance and huge losses of material (tanks etc.) that can't be replaced, not quickly but also in the long term problematic as they are not self-sufficient.
He then asked about Crimea, I said: Next summer.
This is a analysis from macro factors, the exact time frame can vary:
- it could come sooner if Ukraine breaks through Russian forces in the Zaporizhya region then it will likely all come crashing down for Russia in weeks as what happened in the Kherson and Kharkov regions, then Crimea not long later.
- Another option is the Russian forces crumbling from new incompetent or unwilling recruits, and collapsing.
- 3rd option is a longer drawn out scenario if neither of the above happens, but even then there is no possibility of Russia winning. Small wins are nothing more than delayed losses, so they will effectively only lose terrain whichever way it goes.
So it could take a bit longer but the end result is inevitable. Russia won't advance except very small steps with huge losses, as you see around Bakhmut, which means simply losing faster, even though it looks like winning a bit, but the losses in men and material means they are losing badly.
I am not worried about the war, I wasn't scared about anything when I was there, I experienced the rocket attacks in Zaporizhya, and it was an experience that was I think you could say 'impressive', i.e. giving an experience that leaves strong impressions, especially seeing in person the destroyed buildings the next day, but I wasn't scared in the sense of getting the feeling of needing to leave the city.
Note that what I wrote above in the 3rd scenario, which is a situation as a whole which we are currently close to [ but which can easily be broken with a good offensive with western equipment ] is a situation that has been going on around Bakhmut for months already where the Russians have taken enormous losses with barely any gains, which is a situation which I predicted end of July 2022: "Russia is continuing only through accepting enormous losses of its people and material."
Prediction part 3: 1 year from the end of July 2022, which is about 1 August 2023: I predicted:
1 year: This is likely crucial: If there is no change, especially handing over all criminals, Russia may by now not get much money from gas/oil any more. unless Russia delivers Putin, Medvedev, Shugoi and all the other criminals in charge from the Kremlin, military, and bullshitters such as Lavrov, to a tribunal to be tried for war crimes (and then spend the rest of their lives in jail), and pays for all damage to Ukraine, Russia will likely get into a worse state than it already is now, with their continuing economic boycott, to which there may be some secondary sanctions added, from which it will likely revert to a country with 1970s-1990s technology and will fall back more and more compared to EU/USA in technology and living standards.
This limiting of revenue already took place earlier than expected as Europe cut its dependence on Russian energy very quickly and thus the west was able to put in place sanctions quickly. They did it with a brilliant idea: To put a price cap on Russian oil using shipping insurance, which could be done as most insurance companies are in the west. The result: Russia still supplies oil, thus not causing oil prices to rise, but also Russia is losing a lot of money to the war and cannot get that back with oil revenue as they cannot get round the issue of insurance [ self insurance is something that would not be accepted by any rational person/group/country through whose waters these ships go ].
We will see what happens with secondary sanctions, especially for products that are not oil and that are being sent to Russia indirectly via somewhat friendly countries.
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Last modified: 2023-4-21