Russia vs. Ukraine war: Why Russia destroyed the Nordstream pipelines

Some weeks after the Nordstream pipelines were blown up I was thinking about it. It happened end of September while I was in Kharkov (UA). Finally written down 2023-3-8. I placed a comment describing it on this day as well with a video of DW news on youtube (but seeing how much ghosting there is there, I don't know whether you will see that comment.

There were many theories as to who blew them up, but I didn't see the most logical ones:

Reasons why I think Russia could have blown up the nordstream pipelines

1. I had the following theory, I think it was end of October (4-5 weeks after the explosions): Russia did it as a way to make it more difficult for people who want to return to business as usual (after withrdawing from Ukraine, and paying for damages) thinking to overthrow putin. Putin's position was already weak at that time, and so I felt that a likely reason for him was to make it more difficult for such types of people and thus decreasing the chances of a coup, as a quick return to selling gas to pay for damages would be impossible.
2. Then a few weeks later putin made a remark that gas deliveries could be resumed, via Nordstream 2, under some conditions. This made me think another reason for blowing up the pipelines by Russia could be to 'stick it to the west' by making gas deliveries possible but ONLY via Nordstream 2, which the western countries had said would never get into operation because of RuZZia's actions. This makes sense to do for putin because he is a psychopath, thus he likes to assert dominance, push through his wishes, and the west having to use Nordstream 2 would be a win for his ego.

These 2 goals combine together so it could be either or both reasons that they blew up those piplines.

Further, Russia of course has the resources to do this, and the resources to put incriminating 'evidence' near there or even in the construction of the bomb, to point towards the party that they want to blame...

Reasons for others to blow up the pipelines, which I think are unlikely

Other reasons for blowing up the pipelines, by any parties who might have an interest to blow up the pipelines are extremely unlikely. However: There are people who act irrationally, emotionally (including men, the view that men are rational and women emotional is wrong, which I analysed elsewhere), so it is possible. Note that an emotional or illogical reason is very unlikely for a country, a crazy reason, yes, that is possible in case of Russia, but an emotional or illogical reason, not really.

• Invalid reason for RuZZia: Not having to send gas without breaking a gas supply contract with western Europe: RuZZia was already not sending gas due to 'maintenance'. They could have easily extended this into however long they want, especially with sanctions possibly causing issues with maintenance and parts, even while keeping in mind the desire to let western Europe pay RuZZia for gas in a year or 2.
• Illogical course of action for Ukraine: Why would they blow up these gas pipelines? Russia's gas was no longer delivered and there were no indications of any lessening of resolve to support Ukraine in the medium term. RuZZian claims against Ukraine are pointless, as if there is something pointing to Ukraine in terms of evidence it could easily have been planted by RuZZia. If it would be discovered that Ukraine did it it would likely harm Ukraine, whereas it added nothing for them as no gas was being supplied to the rest of Europe anyway because of 'maintenance' which was really a Fook-you by RuZZia with regard to supplying gas to them as long as they support Ukraine.
• Illogical course of action for Western Europe: No gas was being supplied, there was no reason at all for any of them to convince others to stop using RuZZian gas, that was already a done deal, even for Germany, except possibly for Hungary in middle/eastern Europea.
• Illogical course of action for Eastern Europe such as Poland, Latvia, Lithuania who look very negatively towards RuZZia: Blowing up these gas pipelines would not in any way help them in making sure RuZZia was isolated, as even Germany was by then off the RuZZian gas.
• Not rational but perhaps emotional: A group (not a country) which looks favourably towards Russia: This is possible but stupid because trying to blame this on another country will likely not work. It is also not useful regarding the interests of Russia that are most clear to outsiders, i.e. selling gas and maintaining some sort of normal operation despite the sanctions, and not the other possibilities which I mentioned in the scenario that I think is most likely. This will only make the cutoff more likely to be permanent.
• Not rational but perhaps emotional: A group (not a country) which looks favourably towards Ukraine: The goal may be to blame it on Russia or to not care about who gets the blame but interrupting gas supplies and making it more likely to become permanent. They could be trying to blame it on Russia, but in any case this scenario is possible but stupid because trying to blame this on another country will likely not work, it will likely come out with tracing ships, divers, satellite and other surveillance. It is also not useful regarding the interests of Ukraine, as Russia no longer being able to sell gas was already at that time almost certain to be for a long time, possibly forever. This will only make the cutoff more likely to be permanent but as western Europa was almost united in this purpose, it was not needed. This makes little sense.

Last modified: 2023-3-9